Trends in the association between meeting the physical activity guidelines and risk of mortality in US adults

Abstract

Objective: To examine the trends in the association between meeting the physical activity (PA) guidelines and mortality in adults.

Methods: We included seventeen annual representative samples of US adults 1998–2014 (n = 482,756) and all-cause and cause-specific mortality ascertained through December 2019. Participants were grouped according to PA Guidelines: 150 or more min/week in aerobic PA and muscle-strengthening activities 2 or more times/week. To provide further context, we also examined the trends in mortality risk associated with other modifiable health factors.

Results: Meeting the PA guidelines was associated with lower 5-year mortality risk (HR = 0.59, 95%CI, 0.55, 0.63) based on the pooled analyses. We consistently observed an inverse association in all years, but there was a nonsignificant trend association (P for trend = 0.305) between meeting PA guidelines and 5-year mortality across the seventeen annual surveys. Meeting aerobic (HR = 0.58, 95%CI, 0.56, 0.61) and muscle-strengthening (HR = 0.86, 95%CI, 0.81, 0.90) guidelines were independently associated with 5-year mortality risk in pooled analyses, without any evidence for trends in the associations. Similar results were found with cause-specific mortality and 10-year mortality risk. In pooled analyses, attaining a high educational level, body mass index